WarrenCo

Markets.

Nine readings on the market. The Pendulum answers Marks’ first question — where are we in the cycle? — from five late-cycle gauges, read daily. The Thermometer boils greed, leverage, supply and valuation into one temperature and an inning. Regime places the current equity premium against sixty years. Mr. Market sets the AI era next to the dotcom one. QQQ Then and Now overlays the Nasdaq‑100's first two years on the past fourteen months. Animal Spirits reads fear, envy, and the gambling instinct against the 1999 peak. Private Equity’s Leverage traces how a shock in private credit could reach the markets you own. The Patience Curve turns the equity premium into a 10‑year return estimate. The Drawdown Survival Map is every real bear since 1871, with depths and durations.

Pendulum
Where Are We in the Cycle?

The Marks pendulum, read daily: five late-cycle gauges, seventeen 1999 parallels, and the price of admission to equities.
Temperature
The Market Thermometer

A two-axis map of Mr. Market: how expensive and fragile the setup is, versus how fearful or eager the marginal buyer feels.
Contagion
Private Equity's Leverage

Buyout leverage looks tamer than 2021, but the stress is masked - and the wires into banks, insurers, 401(k)s and pensions are thicker than ever.
Regime
The Living Intelligent Investor

60 years of the Shiller Excess CAPE Yield, with the headlines that defined each regime.
Cycle
The Living Mr. Market

AI vs. dotcom, side by side, on the same axes. Same valuation; very different price.
Bubble
QQQ Then and Now

Nasdaq-100 from its 1999 inception, overlaid with the index since March 2025.
Sentiment
Animal Spirits

Fear, envy, and gambling excitement: today, three months ago, and at the 1999 peak.
Forecast
The Patience Curve

Starting Shiller Excess CAPE Yield against realized next-10-year real return. The price you pay sets the return you get.
Drawdowns
The Drawdown Survival Map

Every real bear since 1871, mapped against time. The depths, the durations, and what it took to survive each one.
Big AI
Big AI: Combined Revenue

The companies powering the AI build-out, measured as one business: combined quarterly revenue and how fast the group is still growing.
GLP-1
GLP-1 Giants: Franchise Revenue

The obesity-drug boom, measured by the drugs that sell. Lilly and Novo's combined GLP-1 franchise revenue, and the field racing to catch them.