AI vs. Dotcom.
Same number of months elapsed from the start of each cycle. Same scale on each axis. Real S&P 500 is indexed to month zero = 100. Dotcom era starts Jan 1995. AI era starts Jan 2022. Look at the y-axis values, not just the line shapes.
Dotcom · Jan 1995 onward
AI · Jan 2022 onward
Real S&P 500Month 0 = 100
CAPEShiller
Top 5 weight% of S&P 500
Lead-sector capex$ B / yr
Same valuation, different price. By the same elapsed month (53), the dotcom S&P was up +157% in real terms; AI is up +34%. CAPE is similar in both (~38), but dotcom got there by price; AI got there by earnings not growing as fast as the multiple. The capex chart is the cleaner alarm: telecom capex tripled from 1997 to 2000, then fell by 65% in two years. Hyperscaler capex has more than tripled from 2022 to 2026 and is still rising. The bubble may be in the picks-and-shovels, not in the index.